Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1899 at 05:15, with a 4% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1899 Southwest	EUG 05:15	SMF 06:47	4%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	6h 02m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 16m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	EUG 06:00 → SEA 07:08AS 2046 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 08:17 → SMF 10:10AS 677	4h 10m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	EUG 16:39 → SLC 19:40DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	7h 05m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 21m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	4h 46m	90%	71%
Alaska Details →	EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722	6h 07m	97%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon	57m Seattle	SEA 19:49 → SMF 21:43AS 681	4h 00m	65%	44%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	55m Seattle	SEA 11:48 → SMF 13:41AS 772	3h 56m	52%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON