tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:53 → SEA 12:07AS 373 3h 48m Seattle SEA 15:55 → ANC 18:34AS 99 12h 41m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299 3h 27m Seattle SEA 14:02 → ANC 16:32AS 1381 13h 07m 99% 68%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:43 → SEA 20:39AS 296 2h 13m Seattle SEA 22:52 → ANC 01:25 +1AS 703 11h 42m 94% 61%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:01 → MSP 16:56DL 2895 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 9h 59m 82% 61%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:05 → PDX 20:17AS 290 1h 13m Portland PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:25 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 11h 20m 77% 59%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 3h 56m Chicago ORD 16:02 → ANC 19:05UA 461 12h 41m 98% 52%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120 2h 00m Denver DEN 18:58 → ANC 22:27UA 280 11h 47m 90% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00DL 2866 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 14m 70% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON