Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1012 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 1012 EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:20 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1157 EWR 22:29 → ATL 00:52 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1012 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:20	8%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 2353 Delta Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ATL 08:15	8%	4%	0.9%	85%
DL 1673 Delta Flight history →	EWR 07:05	ATL 09:20	10%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 2365 Delta Flight history →	EWR 08:30	ATL 10:51	12%	4%	0.9%	84%
UA 2669 United Flight history →	EWR 07:25	ATL 09:51	12%	4%	0.8%	78%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	EWR 10:31	ATL 12:53	16%	4%	0.9%	82%
UA 1746 United	EWR 11:20	ATL 13:47	17%	6%	0.9%	no record
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	EWR 12:00	ATL 14:30	17%	5%	1.0%	81%
F9 4601 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:25	ATL 13:55	20%	8%	1.6%	75%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	EWR 13:29	ATL 16:00	22%	7%	0.9%	80%
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	EWR 16:29	ATL 19:14	27%	12%	1.3%	75%
UA 1848 United Flight history →	EWR 15:57	ATL 18:41	31%	15%	1.1%	76%
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	EWR 15:21	ATL 17:54	32%	12%	1.2%	70%
UA 2304 United Flight history →	EWR 16:53	ATL 19:21	33%	15%	1.2%	100%worse than usual
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	EWR 19:06	ATL 21:29	39%	13%	1.6%	94%worse than usual
UA 1991 United Flight history →	EWR 18:41	ATL 21:13	46%	17%	1.3%	72%worse than usual
F9 1157 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 22:29	ATL 00:52	47%	21%	1.8%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON