Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2110 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2110 EWR 06:57 → AUS 09:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1409 EWR 20:37 → AUS 23:41 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2110 United Flight history →	EWR 06:57	AUS 09:57	6%	3%	0.9%	96%
UA 1238 United	EWR 09:36	AUS 12:43	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2289 United Flight history →	EWR 15:10	AUS 18:11	27%	14%	0.9%	78%
UA 2213 United	EWR 17:33	AUS 20:36	33%	15%	0.9%	no record
UA 1032 United	EWR 18:52	AUS 21:57	36%	16%	1.1%	no record
UA 1409 United	EWR 20:37	AUS 23:41	38%	14%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 08m Dulles	IAD 08:30 → AUS 10:56UA 637	5h 56m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 14m Detroit	DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59DL 1218	5h 59m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 12:53 → AUS 14:55DL 1012	6h 00m	90%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON