Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, G7 4409 at 09:39, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G7 4409 GoJet	EWR 09:39	BGR 11:09	17%	4%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:52 → BGR 13:39DL 2350	7h 39m	97%	85%
American Details →	EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 09:51 → BGR 12:21AA 1874	7h 26m	98%	81%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 13:04 → BGR 15:36AA 1411	8h 06m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON