Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1428 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1428 EWR 06:52 → BNA 08:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 695 EWR 15:16 → BNA 16:45 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1428 United Flight history →	EWR 06:52	BNA 08:16	7%	3%	0.9%	89%
UA 2776 United	EWR 10:41	BNA 12:02	19%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1608 United Flight history →	EWR 13:12	BNA 14:34	23%	7%	0.9%	72%
UA 2454 United Flight history →	EWR 16:05	BNA 17:46	27%	10%	1.0%	67%
YX 3454 Republic	EWR 19:27	BNA 20:54	28%	8%	2.0%	no record
UA 695 United	EWR 15:16	BNA 16:45	29%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON