Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 593 at 07:27 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 593 EWR 07:27 → BOS 08:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 9008 EWR 21:06 → BOS 22:16 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 593 United Flight history →	EWR 07:27	BOS 08:37	9%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 1110 United Flight history →	EWR 08:35	BOS 09:51	10%	5%	0.8%	91%
UA 375 United Flight history →	EWR 10:00	BOS 11:16	16%	7%	0.9%	80%
UA 1669 United Flight history →	EWR 11:22	BOS 12:33	17%	7%	0.8%	85%
UA 577 United Flight history →	EWR 13:10	BOS 14:20	23%	10%	0.8%	78%
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:10	BOS 16:36	26%	10%	1.9%	68%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:40	BOS 22:18	30%	13%	2.0%	67%
UA 1117 United	EWR 21:35	BOS 23:02	33%	18%	0.9%	no record
UA 2433 United Flight history →	EWR 16:44	BOS 18:09	35%	20%	0.8%	69%
UA 1536 United Flight history →	EWR 15:22	BOS 16:38	36%	18%	0.9%	56%
UA 2763 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	BOS 19:42	45%	23%	1.1%	44%
B6 9008 JetBlue	EWR 21:06	BOS 22:16	46%	19%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON