Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Charlotte, leaving 04:55, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:48 → BUF 10:37AA 1203	5h 42m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	55m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 11m	89%	77%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 30m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → BUF 14:54AA 2442	7h 24m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 37m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	7h 33m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	3h 59m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	7h 08m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	8h 10m	99%	73%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → BUF 13:13UA 4382 · flown by GoJet	7h 13m	98%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	EWR 15:25 → FLL 18:27B6 685	1h 27m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 19:54 → BUF 23:03B6 866	7h 38m	72%	47%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 17:57 → BUF 20:35UA 1335	5h 50m	72%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON