tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:45, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 297 United Flight history → EWR 07:39 BZN 10:26 13% 4% 1.5% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 10:57 → BZN 12:33DL 2946 8h 18m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758 1h 49m Denver DEN 11:52 → BZN 13:49UA 741 7h 57m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 3h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 24m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 29m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 44m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113 2h 43m Charlotte CLT 09:31 → BZN 11:44AA 2415 8h 49m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:59 → ORD 08:41AA 3027 1h 51m Chicago ORD 10:32 → BZN 12:56AA 1080 7h 57m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455 1h 26m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 7h 33m 92% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:15 → LAX 11:53UA 2692 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 9h 09m 75% 62%
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00DL 2866 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954 7h 07m 75% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON