Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2355 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 2355 EWR 06:45 → CHS 08:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2796 EWR 21:44 → CHS 23:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2355 United Flight history →	EWR 06:45	CHS 08:51	8%	3%	1.2%	93%
UA 1760 United Flight history →	EWR 12:10	CHS 14:16	21%	7%	1.4%	80%
YX 3655 Republic	EWR 16:47	CHS 19:12	21%	8%	4.0%	no record
UA 2796 United Flight history →	EWR 21:44	CHS 23:52	39%	14%	1.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON