Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 44–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 2505 EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1330 EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:22 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:01	8%	4%	1.9%	94%
AA 1113 American Flight history →	EWR 04:55	CLT 06:48	9%	4%	1.6%	92%
YX 3635 Republic	EWR 07:00	CLT 08:58	10%	3%	2.1%	no record
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	12%	5%	1.8%	85%
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	15%	4%	1.7%	84%
YX 3493 Republic	EWR 10:24	CLT 12:22	15%	3%	1.7%	no record
YX 3547 Republic	EWR 12:59	CLT 14:58	16%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	20%	9%	2.0%	81%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	EWR 13:33	CLT 15:27	28%	8%	1.4%	84%worse than usual
UA 1168 United	EWR 19:04	CLT 20:55	44%	16%	0.9%	no record
AA 1330 American Flight history →	EWR 19:29	CLT 21:22	49%	19%	1.4%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON