tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Key West on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3606 Republic EWR 09:57 EYW 13:21 24% 3% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 11:30 → EYW 13:23DL 1472 6h 18m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:32 → EYW 12:32DL 9966 6h 32m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815 7h 51m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 09:58 → EYW 12:20AA 1816 7h 25m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168 6h 52m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:35 → MIA 08:45AA 1196 3h 43m Miami MIA 12:28 → EYW 13:39AA 3577 · flown by Envoy 8h 04m 99% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON