Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3576 at 16:15 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 3576 EWR 16:15 → GSO 18:06 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest G7 4406 EWR 21:58 → GSO 23:41 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3576 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:15	GSO 18:06	18%	6%	1.0%	79%
UA 4509 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 12:17	GSO 14:14	19%	5%	1.8%	66%
G7 4406 GoJet	EWR 21:58	GSO 23:41	34%	9%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON