Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3604 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 3604 EWR 08:30 → GSP 10:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest YX 3572 EWR 21:17 → GSP 23:38 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3604 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:30	GSP 10:37	9%	2%	1.6%	84%
UA 3584 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:59	GSP 19:08	21%	7%	2.4%	86%
YX 3572 Republic	EWR 21:17	GSP 23:38	25%	8%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON