Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	7h 10m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	6h 51m	96%	74%
American Details →	EWR 12:28 → DFW 15:19AA 1796	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 20m	99%	66%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	7h 30m	94%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON