Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2438 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2438 EWR 07:00 → IAH 09:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 8127 EWR 19:46 → IAH 22:38 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	IAH 09:45	12%	4%	0.8%	94%
UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	12%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	17%	7%	0.7%	89%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	20%	7%	0.7%	77%
UA 1830 United	EWR 13:54	IAH 16:43	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 3932 United	EWR 22:24	IAH 01:17	27%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	32%	14%	0.7%	69%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	33%	14%	0.7%	69%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	34%	14%	0.8%	75%
UA 8127 United	EWR 19:46	IAH 22:38	36%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON