Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G7 4604 GoJet	EWR 10:05	ILM 11:51	18%	4%	2.4%	no record
UA 4511 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 21:17	ILM 23:20	27%	10%	2.5%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	6h 38m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 32m	99%	76%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → ILM 11:45AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	91%	76%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 12:54 → ILM 14:02AA 2413	6h 32m	98%	74%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → ILM 12:14AA 5416 · flown by PSA	6h 14m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	7h 35m	94%	71%
American Details →	EWR 13:33 → CLT 15:27AA 1697	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 18:13 → ILM 19:23AA 2105	5h 50m	96%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:22AA 1330	1h 24m Charlotte	CLT 22:46 → ILM 23:54AA 2831	4h 25m	69%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON