Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3683 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 3683 EWR 06:15 → IND 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 3519 EWR 18:29 → IND 20:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3683 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 06:15	IND 08:23	6%	2%	1.1%	90%
UA 3669 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:52	IND 12:05	11%	2%	1.1%	88%
UA 3446 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:54	IND 14:07	12%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:47	IND 18:06	23%	8%	2.2%	85%
UA 3447 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:57	IND 22:23	25%	9%	1.9%	86%worse than usual
UA 3519 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:29	IND 20:57	30%	9%	1.9%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON