tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Jackson on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jackson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jackson is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:15 → JAC 12:46UA 2193 8h 16m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758 3h 52m Denver DEN 13:55 → JAC 15:25UA 1537 9h 33m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 09:07 → JAC 11:26AA 1175 8h 31m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434 1h 38m Los Angeles LAX 10:31 → JAC 14:03UA 1041 10h 03m 95% 73%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → JAC 12:15DL 2282 7h 00m 83% 71%
DeltaDetails → EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:10 → JAC 20:04DL 315 10h 04m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 13m Chicago ORD 08:54 → JAC 11:10UA 2176 7h 10m 93% 69%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185 2h 28m Chicago ORD 09:43 → JAC 12:03AA 1898 8h 33m 92% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON