Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2147 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–47%.

Safest bet that day UA 2147 EWR 06:05 → LAS 08:17 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1283 EWR 20:13 → LAS 22:38 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2147 United	EWR 06:05	LAS 08:17	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1631 United Flight history →	EWR 09:00	LAS 11:28	17%	4%	0.7%	90%
UA 2828 United	EWR 09:28	LAS 11:48	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 446 United Flight history →	EWR 10:54	LAS 13:21	21%	6%	0.7%	82%
UA 1864 United Flight history →	EWR 12:25	LAS 14:53	26%	7%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 14:31	LAS 17:05	34%	11%	0.7%	78%worse than usual
UA 1539 United	EWR 16:44	LAS 19:20	36%	13%	0.7%	no record
UA 1283 United	EWR 20:13	LAS 22:38	47%	15%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 16m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	94%	81%
United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758	1h 19m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	7h 32m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON