Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3436 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:47	MCI 17:02	18%	7%	2.4%	82%
UA 1399 United Flight history →	EWR 21:43	MCI 23:59	41%	15%	0.9%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 09:57 → MCI 11:29DL 1349	6h 14m	97%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492	3h 24m Houston	IAH 12:05 → MCI 14:15UA 6152 · flown by Mesa	9h 15m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	50m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44DL 2826	4h 44m	92%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908	6h 11m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	6h 08m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	6h 59m	96%	78%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	58m Denver	DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159	7h 00m	91%	78%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 27m Charlotte	CLT 11:28 → MCI 13:00AA 3233	8h 00m	97%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	58m Detroit	DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49DL 1321	4h 59m	67%	50%
United Details →	EWR 14:31 → LAS 17:05UA 2387	1h 00m Las Vegas	LAS 18:05 → MCI 22:50UA 3814	9h 19m	66%	41%
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	57m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MCI 20:43UA 2793	7h 03m	63%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON