Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1827 EWR 20:09 → MCO 22:55 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:04	MCO 08:48	8%	3%	1.3%	90%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:42	MCO 10:26	10%	4%	0.8%	98%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:50	MCO 08:37	14%	4%	1.3%	83%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:13	MCO 12:04	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	18%	6%	0.9%	76%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	19%	7%	1.1%	87%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 14:05	MCO 17:03	28%	12%	1.0%	81%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:05	MCO 16:50	29%	12%	1.0%	no record
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:34	MCO 16:18	30%	14%	2.2%	75%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	MCO 00:41	31%	12%	1.0%	73%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	32%	17%	1.8%	77%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:13	MCO 17:58	35%	15%	1.1%	79%worse than usual
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:57	MCO 21:44	41%	17%	1.2%	no record
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:09	MCO 22:55	50%	22%	2.1%	67%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON