Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 3650 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:30	MEM 15:26	14%	5%	1.6%	83%
UA 3563 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:23	MEM 23:30	23%	8%	2.6%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	57m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:49DL 1627	4h 49m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	57m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	94%	83%
American Details →	EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 09:14 → MEM 10:08AA 1790	6h 13m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	6h 44m	97%	80%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	2h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 15:45 → MEM 17:52DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 05m	95%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 17:10 → DFW 20:10AA 1810	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:33 → MEM 23:17AA 1758	7h 07m	69%	39%
American Details →	EWR 17:38 → ORD 19:34AA 1691	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	67%	39%
United Details →	EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 06m	56%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON