Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1196 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–52%.

Safest bet that day AA 1196 EWR 05:35 → MIA 08:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 18:32 → MIA 21:26 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:35	MIA 08:45	9%	3%	1.2%	95%
UA 1135 United	EWR 06:57	MIA 09:54	15%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	19%	4%	2.1%	93%worse than usual
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 09:13	MIA 12:30	23%	5%	3.6%	97%worse than usual
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:32	MIA 14:39	33%	8%	4.9%	81%worse than usual
AA 1801 American Flight history →	EWR 12:33	MIA 15:41	37%	10%	5.0%	82%worse than usual
UA 791 United	EWR 20:21	MIA 23:14	46%	20%	1.8%	no record
UA 1498 United	EWR 15:51	MIA 19:07	46%	17%	1.8%	no record
AA 3016 American	EWR 18:32	MIA 21:26	52%	22%	3.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON