Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3712 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3712 Republic	EWR 08:46	MSN 10:24	9%	2%	1.6%	no record
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:59	MSN 20:39	28%	8%	2.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 04m	97%	82%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	2h 15m Denver	DEN 11:00 → MSN 14:10UA 2368	8h 40m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 21m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 22m	92%	79%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	3h 11m Charlotte	CLT 11:12 → MSN 12:31AA 2443	7h 31m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 17:03 → MSN 18:15DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor	7h 28m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577	2h 02m Detroit	DTW 17:00 → MSN 17:24DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor	5h 24m	92%	76%
American Details →	EWR 06:59 → ORD 08:41AA 3027	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 11:40 → MSN 12:46AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	6h 47m	98%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 18:45 → MSP 21:00DL 2866	59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	5h 15m	63%	48%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:22AA 1330	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → MSN 23:42AA 1426	5h 13m	57%	39%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 19:46 → MSN 20:46UA 630	5h 01m	58%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON