tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 2h 40m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 9h 17m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 8h 01m 89% 78%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:34 → ONT 11:52AA 2956 9h 01m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → SFO 09:09UA 2115 1h 31m San Francisco SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661 9h 12m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:50 → SFO 15:01UA 1343 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 18:53 → ONT 20:30UA 2478 11h 40m 98% 70%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:53 → SEA 12:07AS 373 3h 19m Seattle SEA 15:26 → ONT 18:07AS 592 11h 14m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282 1h 12m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 7h 51m 87% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:14 → SFO 19:30UA 2004 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 9h 23m 75% 52%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 1h 05m San Francisco SFO 18:53 → ONT 20:30UA 2478 8h 45m 67% 48%
FrontierDetails → EWR 13:35 → DFW 16:27F9 2471 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:26 → ONT 18:50F9 4689 8h 15m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON