Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 530 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48–61%.

Safest bet that day UA 530 EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 254 EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 530 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	ORD 07:41	9%	4%	0.9%	92%
AA 3185 American Flight history →	EWR 05:30	ORD 07:15	9%	5%	2.8%	88%
AA 3027 American Flight history →	EWR 06:59	ORD 08:41	9%	6%	2.2%	87%
UA 2488 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	ORD 09:43	14%	6%	1.0%	88%
UA 2754 United	EWR 07:13	ORD 08:42	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	EWR 09:20	ORD 11:04	18%	7%	1.0%	83%
UA 1525 United Flight history →	EWR 10:24	ORD 12:06	21%	8%	1.1%	79%
AA 752 American	EWR 10:42	ORD 12:14	25%	11%	2.7%	no record
UA 1439 United	EWR 11:03	ORD 12:33	27%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 2053 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	ORD 14:43	37%	18%	1.8%	77%worse than usual
AA 2416 American	EWR 14:15	ORD 15:47	46%	26%	4.5%	no record
UA 1206 United Flight history →	EWR 22:05	ORD 23:33	48%	21%	1.5%	71%worse than usual
UA 2788 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	ORD 16:28	49%	23%	2.4%	50%
UA 3772 United	EWR 21:16	ORD 22:49	53%	25%	1.8%	no record
AA 1691 American Flight history →	EWR 17:38	ORD 19:34	55%	35%	3.8%	54%
UA 661 United Flight history →	EWR 16:45	ORD 18:34	56%	27%	1.7%	50%
UA 546 United Flight history →	EWR 20:19	ORD 22:06	57%	25%	1.6%	69%worse than usual
UA 1871 United	EWR 20:37	ORD 22:06	60%	30%	1.5%	no record
UA 254 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	ORD 20:10	61%	30%	2.0%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON