tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4448 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record EWR 17:40 ORF 19:21 31% 15% 7.1% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 11m Detroit DTW 10:01 → ORF 11:57DL 3066 5h 57m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 28m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:14DL 2925 7h 09m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 02m Atlanta ATL 13:53 → ORF 15:34DL 1101 7h 04m 97% 79%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → ORF 12:52AA 1323 6h 52m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573 2h 49m Detroit DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412 6h 42m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → ORF 14:24AA 2911 6h 54m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 2h 22m Chicago ORD 12:05 → ORF 15:19UA 2807 7h 20m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 19:06 → ATL 21:29DL 2340 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 23:45 → ORF 01:19 +1DL 2338 6h 13m 74% 58%
AmericanDetails → EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:22AA 1330 1h 07m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → ORF 23:45AA 2674 4h 16m 58% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON