Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2646 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 2646 EWR 06:15 → PHX 08:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2612 EWR 18:51 → PHX 21:06 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2646 United Flight history →	EWR 06:15	PHX 08:27	10%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 1282 American Flight history →	EWR 07:15	PHX 09:28	17%	6%	1.3%	86%
UA 1289 United	EWR 10:00	PHX 12:12	21%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2825 American Flight history →	EWR 10:53	PHX 12:54	22%	7%	1.4%	77%
UA 370 United Flight history →	EWR 13:02	PHX 15:15	23%	8%	0.9%	97%worse than usual
UA 676 United	EWR 18:28	PHX 20:52	41%	16%	1.1%	no record
AA 1327 American	EWR 17:39	PHX 20:06	41%	15%	1.4%	no record
UA 2321 United	EWR 20:19	PHX 22:36	43%	16%	1.2%	no record
UA 2612 United	EWR 18:51	PHX 21:06	44%	16%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 28m	96%	82%
United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758	1h 16m Denver	DEN 11:19 → PHX 12:18UA 8175	7h 26m	96%	72%
American Details →	EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113	53m Charlotte	CLT 07:41 → PHX 09:05AA 1678	7h 10m	88%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON