Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 3665 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 3665 EWR 07:45 → PWM 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest UA 1397 EWR 21:55 → PWM 23:23 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3665 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:45	PWM 09:11	6%	2%	1.2%	98%
UA 3685 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 11:59	PWM 13:25	10%	3%	1.1%	93%
YX 3573 Republic	EWR 18:52	PWM 20:24	22%	7%	1.7%	no record
UA 1397 United Flight history →	EWR 21:55	PWM 23:23	31%	16%	1.1%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON