Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 3619 EWR 08:22 → RIC 09:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3639 EWR 15:25 → RIC 17:08 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 3619 Republic	EWR 08:22	RIC 09:54	8%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 3639 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:25	RIC 17:08	18%	7%	2.1%	85%
UA 4176 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 17:45	RIC 19:25	39%	21%	4.1%	61%
UA 4386 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 18:52	RIC 20:30	42%	25%	6.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON