Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3649 at 16:52 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day YX 3649 EWR 16:52 → ROC 18:22 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4169 EWR 21:27 → ROC 22:41 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3649 Republic	EWR 16:52	ROC 18:22	17%	7%	2.3%	no record
UA 4465 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 10:54	ROC 12:09	18%	3%	1.5%	81%
G7 4169 GoJet	EWR 21:27	ROC 22:41	31%	9%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON