Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2766 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2766 EWR 06:57 → SAN 09:28 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1102 EWR 19:22 → SAN 22:02 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2766 United	EWR 06:57	SAN 09:28	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1826 United Flight history →	EWR 09:27	SAN 11:59	19%	5%	0.8%	88%
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 17:09	SAN 20:02	34%	15%	0.8%	78%worse than usual
AS 578 Alaska	EWR 16:35	SAN 19:11	35%	13%	1.6%	no record
UA 1102 United	EWR 19:22	SAN 22:02	43%	17%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	53m Dulles	IAD 08:15 → SAN 10:38UA 1930	7h 38m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	93%	73%
United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758	1h 12m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 49m	94%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON