tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Dulles, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 591 United Flight history → EWR 08:41 SAT 11:59 15% 5% 0.7% 87%
UA 515 United Flight history → EWR 12:03 SAT 15:04 18% 7% 0.8% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 58m Dulles IAD 08:20 → SAT 10:54UA 1789 5h 54m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 47m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 34m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758 3h 41m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 03m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41UA 492 58m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 46m 89% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 1h 58m Detroit DTW 13:41 → SAT 15:51DL 2458 6h 56m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 44m Chicago ORD 09:25 → SAT 12:29UA 490 7h 29m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 40m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 08:15 → SFO 11:29UA 1777 55m San Francisco SFO 12:24 → SAT 18:05UA 2365 10h 50m 73% 52%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 1h 24m Chicago ORD 19:58 → SAT 22:57UA 1394 7h 12m 69% 30%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:38 → ORD 19:34AA 1691 1h 45m Chicago ORD 21:19 → SAT 00:10 +1AA 431 7h 32m 56% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON