tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1636 at 11:49 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1636 United EWR 11:49 SAV 14:02 18% 6% 1.0% no record
UA 2645 United Flight history → EWR 20:35 SAV 22:50 41% 19% 1.2% 71%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 11:10 → SAV 12:35AA 5890 · flown by Piedmont 6h 35m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 55m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAV 10:52DL 1119 4h 52m 93% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 09:23 → SAV 10:27DL 3054 4h 27m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 13:32 → SAV 14:38DL 1067 6h 08m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 1h 17m Houston IAH 14:55 → SAV 18:22UA 6355 · flown by Mesa 7h 29m 92% 80%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → SAV 18:02DL 3112 7h 31m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113 2h 22m Charlotte CLT 09:10 → SAV 10:31AA 5910 · flown by Piedmont 5h 40m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 3h 13m Chicago ORD 10:54 → SAV 14:10UA 1612 8h 10m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401 50m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → SAV 18:02DL 3112 4h 33m 71% 57%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322 52m Atlanta ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425 4h 48m 67% 52%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788 52m Chicago ORD 17:20 → SAV 20:42UA 1191 5h 57m 50% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON