Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3599 at 10:23 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day YX 3599 EWR 10:23 → SDF 12:44 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 3415 EWR 18:00 → SDF 20:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3599 Republic	EWR 10:23	SDF 12:44	10%	2%	1.4%	no record
YX 3405 Republic	EWR 15:20	SDF 17:42	19%	7%	1.8%	no record
UA 3609 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:13	SDF 23:36	23%	9%	2.3%	79%
UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SDF 20:25	27%	9%	2.0%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON