Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	8h 46m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	96%	81%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	2h 36m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SJC 13:08UA 1256	9h 38m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254	8h 30m	95%	77%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:11 → SJC 11:44UA 307	8h 44m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 12:00 → ATL 14:30DL 2397	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 52m	97%	75%
American Details →	EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728	3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:55 → SJC 13:52AA 2834	11h 01m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	EWR 09:53 → SEA 12:07AS 373	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 13:40 → SJC 15:51AS 521	8h 58m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 07:15 → PHX 09:28AA 1282	50m Phoenix	PHX 10:18 → SJC 12:24AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	8h 09m	75%	63%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → SJC 22:43UA 481	8h 58m	69%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON