tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1926 United EWR 18:44 SMF 21:51 40% 16% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 54m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758 1h 49m Denver DEN 11:52 → SMF 13:36UA 2673 8h 44m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 00m 92% 78%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 23m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 51m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009 1h 22m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → EWR 11:50 → SFO 15:01UA 1343 3h 27m San Francisco SFO 18:28 → SMF 19:36UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest 10h 46m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:45 → SMF 13:28AA 2078 10h 37m 98% 70%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:59 → ORD 08:41AA 3027 3h 12m Chicago ORD 11:53 → SMF 14:27AA 1906 10h 28m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:14 → SFO 19:30UA 2004 1h 26m San Francisco SFO 20:56 → SMF 21:58UA 1862 8h 44m 75% 48%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:43 → SEA 20:39AS 296 1h 17m Seattle SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722 9h 07m 68% 45%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 1h 19m Chicago ORD 19:53 → SMF 22:39UA 1828 8h 54m 65% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON