Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2423 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 2423 EWR 06:42 → SNA 09:35 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1690 EWR 17:05 → SNA 20:11 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2423 United Flight history →	EWR 06:42	SNA 09:35	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 2477 United	EWR 14:41	SNA 17:37	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1690 United Flight history →	EWR 17:05	SNA 20:11	28%	7%	0.7%	87%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 07:52 → DEN 10:03UA 1758	1h 17m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	7h 59m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	1h 35m Detroit	DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857	8h 05m	95%	75%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	59m Chicago	ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304	8h 21m	91%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON