tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2772 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 41%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2772 United Flight history → EWR 08:30 SRQ 11:19 19% 7% 1.3% 66%
UA 1324 United Flight history → EWR 20:09 SRQ 23:15 41% 18% 2.4% 72%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 5h 44m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 13:43 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 6h 52m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 8h 16m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:34 → SRQ 17:13DL 3109 6h 42m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113 2h 28m Charlotte CLT 09:16 → SRQ 11:10AA 1452 6h 15m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 3h 29m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 12m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 7h 31m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → EWR 13:33 → CLT 15:27AA 1697 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 19:07 → SRQ 21:02AA 2604 7h 29m 100% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 19:06 → ATL 21:29DL 2340 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 5h 39m 72% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON