Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1979 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 1979 EWR 07:00 → TPA 09:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1505 EWR 20:44 → TPA 23:49 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1979 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	TPA 09:51	8%	3%	0.8%	94%
UA 1415 United	EWR 09:28	TPA 12:33	16%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1273 United Flight history →	EWR 12:31	TPA 15:36	18%	8%	0.9%	81%
UA 601 United	EWR 11:52	TPA 14:48	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 8100 United	EWR 21:08	TPA 00:14	34%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 2777 United Flight history →	EWR 15:07	TPA 18:07	36%	12%	0.9%	77%worse than usual
UA 1647 United	EWR 18:52	TPA 21:49	40%	16%	0.9%	no record
UA 1505 United	EWR 20:44	TPA 23:49	40%	14%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON