tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Traverse City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 6h 39m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530 1h 19m Chicago ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet 5h 37m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 57m Denver DEN 09:42 → TVC 14:20UA 2420 7h 50m 91% 72%
AmericanDetails → EWR 06:59 → ORD 08:41AA 3027 3h 37m Chicago ORD 12:18 → TVC 14:39AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864 1h 40m Minneapolis MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor 6h 08m 95% 47%
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 2h 52m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 6h 52m 90% 35%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254 1h 16m Chicago ORD 21:26 → TVC 23:37UA 2071 5h 22m 61% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON