tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Knoxville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 10m 96% 84%
AmericanDetails → EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:48AA 1113 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 5h 43m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 18m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor 6h 14m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 50m Detroit DTW 08:40 → TYS 10:22DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor 4h 26m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366 1h 38m Dulles IAD 09:00 → TYS 10:42UA 4257 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 42m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571 6h 45m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → TYS 12:53AA 2544 7h 02m 92% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 15:40 → IAH 18:46UA 2815 1h 04m Houston IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa 7h 32m 73% 53%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573 1h 08m Detroit DTW 19:59 → TYS 21:41DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor 4h 51m 73% 48%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788 1h 32m Chicago ORD 18:00 → TYS 20:40UA 795 5h 55m 74% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON