Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 4389 at 12:38, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 4389 Republic	EYW 12:38	DCA 15:42	17%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798	4h 56m	88%	73%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 41m	94%	64%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 23m	98%	62%
American Details →	EYW 16:46 → CLT 19:26AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269	7h 07m	95%	62%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 34m	88%	61%
American Details →	EYW 13:02 → CLT 15:17AA 1816	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 18:38 → DCA 20:20AA 527	7h 18m	93%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EYW 16:46 → CLT 19:26AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	53m Charlotte	CLT 20:19 → DCA 21:49AA 2432	5h 03m	70%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON