tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 5h 54m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 6h 55m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:46 → CLT 19:26AA 3822 · flown by Envoy 3h 21m Charlotte CLT 22:47 → DFW 00:30 +1AA 1256 8h 44m 100% 65%
DeltaDetails → EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374 6h 31m 92% 63%
AmericanDetails → EYW 14:43 → PHL 18:10AA 4509 · flown by Republic 2h 12m Philadelphia PHL 20:22 → DFW 23:00AA 1115 9h 17m 100% 63%
AmericanDetails → EYW 13:02 → CLT 15:17AA 1816 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 17:16 → DFW 19:08AA 3209 7h 06m 88% 56%
DeltaDetails → EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:44 → DFW 19:04DL 1827 5h 40m 84% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON