Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, YX 3502 at 14:23, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3502 Republic	EYW 14:23	EWR 17:54	34%	19%	4.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	6h 26m	94%	70%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 40m	94%	63%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	8h 05m	100%	63%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 58m	89%	58%
American Details →	EYW 13:02 → CLT 15:17AA 1816	3h 50m Charlotte	CLT 19:07 → EWR 21:14AA 997	8h 12m	93%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON