Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MQ 3827 at 10:24 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3827 EYW 10:24 → MIA 11:23 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3579 EYW 13:48 → MIA 14:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3827 Envoy	EYW 10:24	MIA 11:23	21%	7%	2.0%	no record
MQ 3436 Envoy	EYW 11:32	MIA 12:31	27%	7%	3.7%	no record
MQ 3438 Envoy	EYW 19:50	MIA 20:49	31%	9%	2.4%	no record
MQ 3579 Envoy	EYW 13:48	MIA 14:47	35%	12%	5.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON