tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:50, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:08 → ORD 12:20DL 2894 5h 30m 89% 70%
DeltaDetails → EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 35m 93% 64%
AmericanDetails → EYW 16:46 → CLT 19:27AA 3822 · flown by Envoy 3h 14m Charlotte CLT 22:41 → ORD 23:44AA 627 7h 58m 100% 58%
AmericanDetails → EYW 14:43 → PHL 18:10AA 4509 · flown by Republic 3h 12m Philadelphia PHL 21:22 → ORD 23:00AA 372 9h 17m 100% 58%
DeltaDetails → EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 6h 16m 90% 52%
DeltaDetails → EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:50DL 1139 7h 26m 99% 49%
AmericanDetails → EYW 13:02 → CLT 15:17AA 1816 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488 7h 49m 92% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EYW 13:02 → CLT 15:17AA 1816 59m Charlotte CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536 5h 37m 69% 39%
DeltaDetails → EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472 49m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → ORD 18:45DL 2879 5h 21m 68% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON