Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4509 at 14:43, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4509 American flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 14:43	PHL 18:10	25%	10%	3.6%	88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EYW 07:50 → ATL 09:54DL 1072	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	5h 34m	91%	77%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 41m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:28DL 1174	8h 04m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	EYW 11:56 → ATL 14:03DL 1281	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	6h 16m	91%	65%
American Details →	EYW 16:46 → CLT 19:26AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 22:24 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827	7h 27m	94%	64%
American Details →	EYW 13:02 → CLT 15:17AA 1816	3h 53m Charlotte	CLT 19:10 → PHL 20:58AA 9792	7h 56m	93%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON