Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 247 FAI 08:08 → ANC 09:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 435 FAI 14:52 → ANC 16:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 247 Alaska	FAI 08:08	ANC 09:23	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 586 Alaska	FAI 09:44	ANC 10:59	7%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 7015 Alaska	FAI 10:16	ANC 11:52	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 570 Alaska	FAI 05:09	ANC 06:24	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 1440 Alaska	FAI 18:39	ANC 19:54	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 84 Alaska	FAI 20:34	ANC 21:48	10%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 435 Alaska	FAI 14:52	ANC 16:07	11%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON